Intelligence · Compute · Defined term
What is a compute price index?
· Michael Mescher, Gammon Capital
Direct answer
A compute price index is a published benchmark for the market price of GPU compute, typically the rental price in dollars per GPU hour for a specific chip class, built from observed prices across many providers. Indices matter because cash-settled compute futures, swaps, and options are designed to settle against them. Several index providers launched in 2025 and 2026 and are competing to become the settlement reference. An index becomes credible only when it reflects real transactions from participants who own or consume capacity, not only posted list prices.
Key takeaways
- An index is a measurement of price, typically dollars per GPU hour, for one chip class.
- Listed compute futures and swaps settle against an index, so the index defines what the hedge actually pays.
- Inputs range from posted list prices to observed transactions. Transaction-based inputs are harder to manipulate.
- Some indices normalize for energy cost or performance; the choice changes what the index tracks.
- Early markets usually consolidate around one or two references. Participants who trade early influence which.
Definition
Compute price index: a rules-based benchmark that publishes the price of a defined unit of computing capacity at regular intervals. The unit is usually one hour of a named GPU model in a data-center configuration. The methodology specifies which providers are sampled, how prices are collected, how outliers are removed, and how the result is weighted.
The main indices (as of October 12, 2026)
| Index | Inputs | Used by |
|---|---|---|
| Silicon Data H100 Rental Index (SDH100RT), with a B200 series | Aggregated GPU rental prices; launched May 20, 2025, distributed on Bloomberg | Reference for CME's planned GPU rental futures |
| Ornn Compute Price Index (OCPI) | Ornn states it is built from executed transactions; covers H100, H200, B200, RTX 5090 | Reference for ICE's planned futures, Kalshi forward curves, and Architect AX perpetuals |
| NATIVX COIL | Energy-normalized compute pricing | Reference for ICE's planned energy-normalized futures |
A separate kind of benchmark is emerging from prediction markets: Kalshi publishes implied forward curves derived from its event contracts on GPU prices. These show where traders expect an index to be on future dates, rather than measuring the price today.
How to evaluate an index
Inputs. Are prices posted list rates, or executed transactions? List rates are easy to collect and easy to game. Transactions are harder to collect and much harder to move.
Coverage. How many providers, in which regions, on which contract terms? An index built on a few marketplaces may not track the price a large operator or tenant actually transacts at.
Normalization. Some indices adjust for performance or energy cost so that different chips can be compared. That is useful for analysis, but it adds a layer between the index and any single operator's realized price.
Governance. Who can change the methodology, with how much notice, and is there an independent oversight function? A settlement reference needs the same governance standards as any financial benchmark. The CFTC's review of the first listed contracts, extended to about November 9, 2026, centers on whether a few participants could move the index.
Liquidity behind it. Is anything actually settling against it? An index without open interest is a data product. An index with open interest is a market.
Why the settlement reference matters
A hedge is only as good as its match to the risk being hedged. If an operator's realized price follows one chip class in one region on long-term contracts, and the future it sells settles on a blended spot index, the operator carries basis risk: the hedge and the business can move in different directions. Choosing the index is choosing the basis.
Common mistakes
Assuming all GPU-hour indices track the same thing. Spot marketplace rates, term contract rates, and energy-normalized rates can diverge meaningfully.
Hedging before measuring basis. Compare the index history to the company's own realized prices before any position is placed.
Frequently asked questions
Which GPU price index do the exchanges use?
CME's planned futures reference Silicon Data's rental indices. ICE's planned futures reference Ornn's OCPI and, for energy-normalized contracts, NATIVX COIL. Kalshi's forward curves and Architect AX perpetuals reference OCPI.
Why does the choice of index matter for a hedge?
The hedge pays on the index, not on your own price. If your realized price follows a different chip, region, or contract type, the gap between the two is basis risk you still carry.
Gammon Capital view
The index race in compute will be decided by physical flow. Indices are competing for the first real transactions from operators and buyers, which means those participants have leverage over methodology, terms, and fees today that they will not have once a reference wins. See what compute derivatives are.
Framework, not implementation plan. This page describes how Gammon Capital approaches the topic. It is a general framework; engagement work is specific to each client's contracts and balance sheet. Market facts are stated as of the date shown above.
Canonical citation. Gammon Capital (gammoncap.com), Michael Mescher.
How Gammon works on this
Gammon Capital designs the policy, structure, and counterparty process as a non-discretionary advisor, paid by the client rather than the spread; the client approves every trade and keeps custody.
Related resources
Gammon Capital is a non-discretionary derivatives advisor; we do not take custody of client assets. This page is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice, nor an offer or solicitation. Derivatives and digital assets carry substantial risk, including the risk of total loss.