It was a gray afternoon in October when our client called, his voice tinged with worry. “This election... it feels like chaos is on the horizon,” he said, pacing through his concerns. The upcoming Trump-Kamala race had gripped the nation, sending waves of uncertainty through the financial markets. Bitcoin, a symbol of market volatility itself, reflected the anxiety, with the options market pricing in a massive 10% price move—up or down—during election week.

Our client was an experienced investor, cautious and strategic, but the stakes felt higher this time. “I’ve worked hard to build this portfolio,” he admitted. “I can’t afford to be on the wrong side of this.”

Short-term BTC options were expensive, reflecting the panic and anticipation in the market. For many, they felt like overpriced lottery tickets with no guarantee of a win. But something stood out: while short-term options were sky-high, longer-dated options—especially on the upside—were much cheaper. The market was fixated on the immediate chaos, ignoring longer-term opportunities.

As we analyzed the landscape, it became clear that the stakes for Bitcoin were directly tied to the election outcome. A Trump victory represented a potential turning point for the industry. Known for his pro-innovation and pro-crypto stance, Trump’s return to power could unleash a wave of optimism, regulatory clarity, and investment in the sector. The upside for Bitcoin in this scenario was massive, as the market anticipated not just price momentum but the broader support of a government that valued innovation.

On the other hand, a Kamala victory carried a much different implication. Her administration would likely continue the regulatory crackdown and policy hostility that had stifled the crypto industry. With restrictions tightening and innovation suppressed, the upside for Bitcoin under her leadership would be significantly limited. It wasn’t just a question of price—
it was about the environment for growth and adoption.

This dynamic created a rare opportunity: buy long-dated BTC options with exposure to the “right-hand tail,” or upside. These options allowed us to position for the massive potential gains of a Trump victory while keeping the downside risk minimal. If the market sold off, the limited premium and long duration would mitigate potential losses. On the other hand, if Bitcoin surged—especially on a Trump victory—the combination of directional gains and increased volatility would amplify their value.

The beauty of the strategy was in its asymmetry. By focusing on long-term tail opportunities, we delivered a strategy where the potential upside was 10x the risk taken—a hallmark of smart, asymmetric investing.

When we explained the approach, our client was intrigued but skeptical. “Why would these options be so cheap when everything else is so expensive?” he asked. It was a fair question.

We broke it down: the market was fixated on the short term, pricing in immediate volatility while underestimating the potential for longer-term moves. This mispricing created a window of opportunity. By taking a step back and looking beyond election week, we could position him for success without overpaying for uncertainty.

“And if the market tanks?” he asked.

“Our exposure is limited to the premium we pay,” we reassured him. “No matter what happens, you’re protected from the kind of catastrophic losses others might face.”

Election night arrived, and as results rolled in, the market reacted swiftly. Bitcoin surged as a Trump victory became apparent. Our client’s long-dated options sprang to life, benefiting from both the price jump and the rising volatility. The strategy delivered exactly as planned: asymmetric upside with minimal risk.

“You nailed it,” he said in our follow-up call. “I thought this election would destroy me. Instead, it’s one of my best wins.”

This wasn’t just about making money—it was about restoring his confidence and control in an unpredictable market.

Opportunities like these are rare, but they don’t have to be out of reach. If you’re ready to navigate uncertainty with precision and uncover the kind of strategies that turn market chaos into calculated advantage, we’d love to show you how. Let’s start building a smarter, more resilient portfolio together.

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